Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
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Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Touches
The big story is Emari Demercado (Cardinals) with James Conner a candidate for IR. I’m not activating the FAAB model here. I don’t know the extent that Keaontay Ingram will be used, though Ingram was inactive last week. The team also signed Tony Jones Jr. I’m at about 20% of FAAB on Demercardo, who only had a practice squad draft grade and is super old (24) for a rookie. We don’t really care about talent at RB — I always preach that it’s more about opportunity. But that seems hazy to me, subjectively. Objectively, a bid of up to 60% is defensible.
I talked about Jordan Mason as a pocket pick during the summer. But it’s impossible to hold on to a guy like this given the byes and injuries through five weeks. He should have been added last week when Elijah Mitchell was ruled out. Mason is just better than Mitchell and a better complement as a power runner to McCaffrey. But that is, of course, just my opinion. I think the FAAB range for Mason is 10-to-20%.
Breece Hall finished at No. 2 and has to be considered a Top 10 RB going forward. I thought he was a bad pick in the Top 30 because the medical data says that RBs who recover from ACL injuries (and that’s only 70%) drop ultimately one tier in ability. So for Hall to do what he’s done in coming back inside a year to this level of efficiency shows he was an All-Pro level talent to begin with and there is no way we could have known that for sure. It also shows he has great healing ability — also unknowable. It’s unknown still whether he can handle a 30% market share. His usage is insane when he’s on the field (still only about 50% of snaps).
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Travis Etienne is a low end RB1 even with no guarantees on the goal line. Remember, this model ignores the Jaguars’ ridiculous 82 plays. He was fifth in share of plays.
Tyler Allgeier out-touching Bijan Robinson can’t happen. It’s absurd. But here we are with son of a billionaire Arthur Smith.
I can’t be bothered looking it up, but whoever got on me for mentioning Jeff Wilson Jr. every week, reveal yourself! This is why. You wanted him for nothing and now he’s going to cost you at least half your FAAB given that De’Von Achane (knee) is a candidate for IR. If Wilson’s gone, and remember he’s expected to only have his window to practice opened this week (not necessarily activated this week), put Salvon Ahmed on the same block for about 10% of FAAB. All of these undersized Dolphins RBs are massive injury risks.
If Jaleel McLaughlin is still there, he’s worth less than last week given that Javonte Williams is presumably returning since he practiced last week. But we won’t know until Wednesday at the earliest. McLaughlin is good and his usage is great. Note that Samaje Perine had twice as many snaps and also looked good but had less touches.
I don’t know the status of Saquon Barkley. But Eric Gray is the RB to roster if he’s out. There is not going to be enough clarity on Barkley to make more than a cursory bid on Gray though.
Rhamondre Stevenson was RB31 in the model and that’s about where I’d rank him this week. Life comes at you fast.
Cam Akers/Alexander Mattison? I assume the Vikings must like Akers somewhat. It’s not terrible to add him on waivers if he’s there. Akers was just a bad pick at ADP given his Achilles injury and still is unlikely to do much, but now we’re talking about waivers, where the glass is always half full — so the math changes.
Chuba Hubbard did out-touch and out-snap Miles Sanders, who was in the dog house for fumbling. I can defend adding Hubbard even on this bad offense if the price is right (10%).
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With Khalil Herbert out and Roschon Johnson battling a concussion and questionable, adding D’Onta Foreman (inactive last week) or Khari Blasingame for peanuts makes sense.
Targets
Darren Waller is the No. 1 TE but Daniel Jones may be out and Tyrod Taylor is worse than Jones and loves getting sacked even more than Jones. I’d be trading Waller.
Jaylen Waddle at No. 4 is encouraging for his managers. He was so inefficient though. We wait for him at his second-round ADP to combine a decent target share with 2022 efficiency and that has not happened yet. We’re into Week 6.
All systems are go for Cooper Kupp (fifth).
Jakobi Meyers (sixth) is a must start in Flex 10 (three WR and a flex formats).
We have to respect the stats now with Adam Thielen (seventh). Play the man.
Marquise Brown (ninth) is definitely a WR2.
Dalton Schultz was TE3 in market share. I’m not questioning it. Just add him. Adding Schultz off waivers and trading Waller, if you have him, is the baller move.
Allen Robinson (16th) is viable even though he does nothing. The Pittsburgh offense is a joke. But it’s waivers and with targets come possibility. Diontae Johnson presumably will come off IR soon (eligible this week), so only take Robinson for $0.
Christian Watson (29th) is a downfield receiver for a QB who can’t presently throw efficiently downfield. I’d trade him. But it’s shocking that Romeo Doubs did nothing against a bad Raiders pass defense. Watson had 180 air yards to 18 for Doubs, but they really are prayer yards with Jordan Love tossing them, at least to date.
I’m trading Calvin Ridley (T-31st with two Jaguars). Where is the market share? He’s definitely an asset, don’t get me wrong, but the market thinks he’s a WR1 when really he’s a low-end WR2. You have to exploit this.
Similar to Jacksonville in allocating targets evenly is the Commanders, who had no receiver chart well — Curtis Samuel (65th) charted highest among their starting three.
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Look, DeVonta Smith (70th) is a great player. But he’s a No. 2 receiver to a monster talent in A.J. Brown and one of the best receiving TEs in Dallas Goedert. He needs massive efficiency. He will have his weeks but will be mostly invisible about the same number of weeks. You have to look in the mirror for taking a No. 2 receiver in a low passing volume offense in the second round.
Rashee Rice (71st)? What a weird player. He ran 10 routes and had five targets. If you want that much usage out of a player, why isn’t he running more routes? I can’t put Rice in the Top 40 WRs yet, not even close. But I would like to have him on my roster for December (not that this is a sure thing, but it’s bettable).
(Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images)
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