CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It took a hold-in by the Carolina Panthers’ best player to get the attention off Bryce Young ever so slightly for the first time since the Panthers drafted the former Alabama quarterback with the No. 1 pick.
But the spotlight will never stray too far from Young during his rookie season, whether it’s his first game Sunday at Atlanta, his home debut on “Monday Night Football” in Week 2 or his October showdown with C.J. Stroud in a matchup of the first two players taken in the April draft.
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Young is featured here in The Athletic’s annual Panthers’ prediction column, which hopefully is more prescient than last year’s edition. There were more misses than hits in 2022, although I did correctly predict Frankie Luvu to emerge as a breakout player and Matt Rhule to be linked to college jobs.
But enough looking back. Let’s get into what this season will hold for the Panthers.
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It’s never been about Young’s height to me. Yes, receivers can lose sight of the 5-foot-10 Young in the pocket, as Jonathan Mingo did during a preseason game. But in tracking all of Young’s throws during 11-on-11 periods at Wofford, I counted two batted passes in 145 attempts. Young’s slight frame has led to durability questions, although he held up OK after taking several big hits during the preseason. Now he needs to learn to slide — and quickly. Young seems to have a good feel of knowing when the pocket is breaking down and he missed only one game in two seasons as Alabama’s starter. I think he gets through his first season mostly unscathed.
2. The preseason protection issues will continue
This would seem to run counter to the first prediction. But it could be a struggle early as the Panthers play without right guard Austin Corbett, out for at least the first four games following ACL surgery. Rookie Chandler Zavala is listed as the starter at right guard for Week 1. Corbett is best known as a run blocker but the former Ram played at a Pro Bowl-type level in 2022 and his return should calm everything down up front. The Panthers finished in the top 10 with a 62 percent pass block win rate in 2022, though they often gave left tackle Ikem Ekwonu help with an extra blocker. Ekwonu’s problems in the preseason were magnified by a small sample size. Look for him to get those cleaned up.
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3. Young will throw TD passes to nine players
The Panthers lack a true No. 1 receiver after trading DJ Moore to Chicago in the package for the first overall pick. But the ball gets spread around in Frank Reich’s offense, which also includes the tight ends somewhat prominently. Couple that with the fact that Young has been compared to a point guard with his ability to see the field and distribute the ball, and there should be an opportunity for a lot of pass catchers to get in the end zone. The last time the Panthers had more than eight players with at least one TD reception was 2018 when C.J. Anderson, Jarius Wright and Chris Martinez (errr, Manhertz) were among those with a receiving TD.
Jonathan Mingo (Jim Dedmon / USA Today)4. Receivers will struggle against tight man coverage
The Panthers’ starting receivers include a 33-year-old (Adam Thielen), a rookie (Mingo) and a veteran who has had difficulty staying healthy (DJ Chark). A longtime NFL offensive coach said he expects defenses to play a lot of press man against the Panthers to free up a defender to blitz the A gaps to try to get in Young’s face. Chark and Terrace Marshall have the speed to beat man coverage if Young has time to find them.
Among those players watching the Brian Burns’ situation closely is Brown, a first-round pick from 2020 who will be eyeing his own payday soon enough. Brown is an ascending player who should thrive in Ejiro Evero’s 3-4 scheme. The former Auburn backfield-wrecker established career highs in several categories last season, including tackles, solo tackles and passes defensed, while tying his personal best with 12 quarterback hits. The next step for Brown is to improve on his sack total of one, which he’ll do in a big way this fall.
6. Breakout player, Part II: Jaycee Horn
Horn might have already checked this box had he not broken bones his first two years, with foot and wrist fractures, respectively, ending his 2021 and ’22 seasons early. Like Brown, Horn is a first-round pick (2021, No. 8) who looks to be on the verge of becoming a Pro Bowler … if he can avoid the injury bug. The Panthers made some moves at roster cutdowns to improve their cornerback depth but they need Horn on the field.
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Panthers' Brian Burns holding in with the sides far apart on extension in Week 1
7. The edge rush will lack punch behind Burns
Week 1 didn’t start off well for the Panthers’ edge rushers, with Burns’ hold-in continuing and Marquis Haynes going on injured reserve with a back injury. I’m not sure how Burns’ situation will play out although I’d be surprised to see him sit out games — both because of what it would mean to the team and his bank account (nearly $900,000 for each week missed). The Panthers added Justin Houston in August but the 34-year-old is a situational player at this point in his career. Without Haynes, the Panthers will rely on Yetur Gross-Matos, who’s been more proficient against the run, and young players Amaré Barno and DJ Johnson, who did not impress in his first NFL training camp.
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8. Young will be in the hunt for Rookie of the Year
Young is not going to come close to matching Cam Newton’s then-rookie record of 4,051 passing yards in 2011, when Newton was surrounded by a vastly superior group of playmakers featuring Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Shockey and Brandon LaFell. Newton threw a career-high 17 interceptions as a rookie, a number I wouldn’t expect Young to reach. The Panthers won’t be nearly as explosive as that 2011 offense. But Young will be steady and — along with Anthony Richardson, Stroud and Bijan Robinson — should be in the mix for ROY.
9. Panthers will finish with a losing record
I predicted the Panthers to go 8-9 after schedules were released in May and I’m sticking with it. There’s a reason only four rookie quarterbacks have won 10 games or more since 2010. The NFL can be tough sledding for first-time starters, even for a gifted processor like Young. This season will be a success if Young stays healthy and establishes himself as the franchise quarterback, after which Scott Fitterer can start bringing in other pieces around him.
(Top photo of Bryce Young: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.
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