Anthony Richardson sets a record. Dameon Pierce is a Top 10 RB. I’m not going half in with my bold predictions. I’m all in for some truly bold calls, but I’ll also explain how each prediction can actually come to fruition. Because I love you all.
I picked six because that’s what I had. I wasn’t going to jam another four in there that I didn’t believe in just for a cooler headline. Enjoy!
Anthony Richardson sets the rookie quarterback rushing record
How it Happens
Robert Griffin holds the record for most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback with 815. Second place goes to Cam Newton with 706, but some of the other best marks come from rookies who didn’t start the majority of games. Lamar Jackson had 695 in seven starts, Justin Fields had 420 in 10 starts, and heck, Jalen Hurts has the 12th-highest mark with 354 yards in just four starts. Anthony Richardson is starting Week 1, and unless it’s a bloodbath, Gardner Minshew isn’t stepping in for the Colts’ potential franchise quarterback.
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Richardson finished college with 161-1116-12 on the ground in 22 games and 103-654-9 of it in his final season. While Richardson evaded numerous sacks, don’t forget that any he took are subtracted from those rushing yards. A great glimpse at that upside is seen with Richardson’s rushing touchdowns of 45, 60, 73, 80 and 81 yards in 2021-22 (19 games). Richardson gets the benefit of an extra game, but even without a 17th start, pushing for 140 rushes is reasonable, and just 6.0 YPC gets him to 840 yards. If Richardson matches RG3’s 6.79 YPC as a rookie, he’d smash the record and hit 950 yards.
Quick note: If you want to mess with Richardson’s stats — or anyone’s stats, for that matter — check out our cheat sheet, where you can tweak my projections and see how many fantasy points it all produces.
Nick Chubb is the 26th running back in history to score 20 touchdowns
How it Happens
Absorb all of Kareem Hunt into Chubb and BOOM! done. That would have only worked once, in 2020, when Chubb had 12 rushing (zero receiving) and Hunt had six and five for 23 total. In 2019, they combined for 11, 2021 was 14 and last year was 17. Funny enough, last year was the first time both played a full season. Okay, back to Chubb. As NFL and fantasy fans, we’ve longed for Chubb to be “unleashed” with more use in the passing game. When Hunt hasn’t been on the field, Chubb goes from 1.4 TmTGT% to 9.9% — and 9.1% of the dropbacks where he ran a route to 57.1%. That’s quite the increase. The 2020 season saw the Browns score the fifth-most offensive touchdowns in their history and the most since 1946. With the offense rebounding as Deshaun Watson shakes off the rust, Chubb can hit the 20-touchdown mark, even if he doesn’t see a significant receiving boost… but the opportunity is certainly here for that too.
Cooper Kupp sets the all-time, single-season reception and receiving yards marks
How it Happens
Kupp and Matthew Stafford are back to 100%. Kupp came close to the reception mark (Michael Thomas, 149, in 2019) with 145 in 2021, when he also narrowly missed breaking Calvin Johnson’s 1,964 yards in 2012. Thomas benefited from a highly accurate quarterback and high reception percentage. Johnson benefited from a mix of also-rans with the second-leading receiver being Brandon Pettigrew — yep, a tight end — with 59-567-3. Well, Kupp has Stafford, the man throwing to Megatron that season, while only completing 59.8% of his throws. Since 2015, Stafford has a 66.0 Comp% with an average of 35.3 attempts per game. Kupp also has zero competition for a plethora of targets with Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Puka Nacua at receiver, and yep, a tight end as the next-best option (Tyler Higbee). Kupp also has a 74.1 REC% mark since 2018, which gives us all the needed ingredients for a double-record-breaking season.
How it Happens
Interestingly, this might be the most duck-crap-crazy of my bold calls. This would take Kelce having a “down” year and Waller bouncing back to his 2020 season. With Kelce, it’s more plausible than you think — since 2017, he’s alternated overly-dominant years with great but not dominant seasons (12.9 FPPG, 15.3, 13.0, 17.3, 13.7 and 15.4, respectively). Of course, 12.9-13.7 FPPG for a tight end is still terrific, but Kelce was behind Mark Andrews in points and FPPG with 13.7 (Andrews had 14.3), he narrowly edged out George Kittle by 0.1 FPPG with his 13.0 season, and the 12.9 mark was 1.8 FPPG short of Rob Gronkowski. Kelce’s three low marks would still finish first in some seasons, but not in 2020, as Waller had 14.2 (albeit, falling way short of Kelce’s most dominant year).
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Waller blew away the field with a 27.7 TmTGT% (Kelce was second at 23.7%), and is set up similarly with the Giants. At receiver, the Raiders had Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow as the next two relevant options with 15.7% and 14.7%, respectively, and then Henry Ruggs at 8.2% and the rest at 3.8% or lower. The Giants have the biggest collection of No. 2 and 3 options fighting for the top two receiver spots, which means Waller should monopolize Daniel Jones’ targets… if he can stay healthy. Age might be a concern, but Waller still managed 13.9 yards per reception in his limited 2022 action. Waller seeing 140+ targets and Kelce having a great-not-dominant season would mean the door opens for a Waller dethroning.
Dameon Pierce is a Top 10 running back
How it Happens
Pierce’s rookie season was impressive, but it’s even better when you look at the metrics backing up what we saw on the field.
Pierce was one of nine running back with a 2.0+ yards difference from Yards After Contact to Yards Before Contact (and fifth highest, 2.29 with 3.28 YAC and 0.99 YBC). Those 3.28 YAC were 10th best and ahead of Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne and more. Pierce also had a respectable 1.17 Yards per Route Run, just behind Etienne and ahead of Antonio Gibson, Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift. We saw Devin Singletary get heavy use in the first preseason game, which suggests Singletary is Pierce’s backup, not his complementary piece. The Texans’ offensive line has improved, ranking inside the Top 20 on several sites, and the Texans’ offense should be better with C.J. Stroud and a productive passing game (productive is saying a lot given its history). Pierce will be one of the few remaining bellcows in 2023 with 250+ carries and a decent receiving line after posting 39-30-165-1 as a rookie. With 300 touches, an improved offense and Pierce taking a step forward in his second year, a Top 10 finish is doable.
Jahan Dotson is a Top 10 wide receiver
How it Happens
Dotson is one of my favorite breakout wide receivers, and this is taking it a step (leap) forward. Ron Rivera compared Dotson to DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith, others have compared him to his teammate Terry McLaurin, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks and Diontae Johnson. Fun list, huh? All of these receivers have at least one Top 15 season with several checking into the Top 10 and/or posting multiple Top 15 finishes.
Let’s focus on the final player comparison and point out that Diontae Johnson could be Dotson’s floor with Johnson’s former teammate, Antonio Brown, being his ceiling. Okay, that’s insanely lofty, but let’s say just 75% of Antonio Brown’s peak. That would be 235 points (313 and 314 for Brown in 2014-15 with 19.6 FPPG). Not so crazy anymore, and I’ll explain why this isn’t just fun projecting.
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Starting with Dotson, he has great speed, burst and acceleration, terrific route manipulation, reliable hands (Top 20 contested catch rate as a rookie), is dangerous after the catch and is a big-play threat. Additionally, he’s a go-to option in the end zone, and more importantly, the end zone, evidenced in his team-high eight end zone targets and six end zone touchdowns, while McLaurin was second with seven and two, respectively. Back to another reason I focused on Antonio Brown: Sam Howell will be at quarterback and he has several traits similar to Ben Roethlisberger. Additionally, we have the arrival of Eric Bieniemy and his offensive mind helping (we think it’s helping) take the Commanders to the next level. If/when Howell attempts 600+ passes this year, as long as he has a middle-of-the-field YD/Comp and TD%, Dotson can become his No. 1 target overall and post a 145-88-1250-8 line, which is 217 points, and just 69% of Brown’s peak, but also good enough to be WR8 last season.
(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
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